The Long Council
Who was selected, and why
How can we create long term peace in Libanon
The central tension
Security-first stabilization versus inclusive governance reconstruction — whether Lebanon must prioritize neutralizing immediate security threats (Hezbollah's armed capacity) before democratic renewal, or whether sustainable peace requires addressing underlying governance failures and external dependencies that enable armed non-state actors to flourish.
The two poles
Security-First
David Ben-Gurion
Helmut SchmidtGovernance-First
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
Konrad Adenauer
Albert HirschmanSelected members
David Ben-Gurion
Will argue: Security is the precondition of everything else; no democratic institutions can function while armed militias control territory and threaten the state's existence
Documented experience rebuilding a state while simultaneously fighting for survival and managing hostile neighbors · Establishment of state monopoly on force (Altalena Affair), management of existential security threats, pragmatic alliance-building regardless of ideology
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
Will argue: Governance reconstruction must proceed simultaneously with security; external debt relief and institutional capacity-building are prerequisites for sustainable peace
Successfully reconstructed a failing state after civil war with multiple armed factions and external dependencies · Post-conflict reconstruction sequencing, managing international aid relationships while building sovereignty, establishing state authority over competing armed groups
Konrad Adenauer
Will argue: Lebanon's path requires deep integration with international partners who can provide both economic resources and security guarantees against regional threats
Rebuilt a state from complete institutional collapse while anchoring it to international structures for security and legitimacy · Post-conflict reconciliation through international integration, using external partnerships to constrain domestic extremists, building democratic legitimacy through economic recovery
Helmut Schmidt
Will argue: Lebanon must reduce structural dependencies (especially energy) that make it vulnerable to external manipulation; sovereignty requires diversified partnerships, not alignment with any single power
Managed a small state's sovereignty under great power competition while maintaining energy security and economic stability · Energy dependency as sovereignty question, managing security threats from multiple directions, maintaining democratic institutions under external pressure
Albert Hirschman
Will argue: Gradual institutional reconstruction through selective improvements may be more viable than comprehensive transformation; making exit harder (through economic recovery) could increase voice and reduce Hezbollah's appeal
Developed framework for understanding when institutions decay and how to sequence reforms when comprehensive change faces entrenched resistance · Exit-voice-loyalty dynamics apply to Lebanon's brain drain and Hezbollah's relationship with the state; irreversibility principle applies to disarmament vs. governance reform sequencing
Considered but not selected
Mandela: His reconciliation framework assumes mutual exhaustion and willingness to negotiate, which doesn't match current Hezbollah-Israel dynamics
Ali ibn Abi Talib: While relevant for governance in Muslim-majority contexts, Lebanon's confessional system creates different challenges than his unified authority framework addresses
Kautilya: His framework assumes a strong central authority that Lebanon currently lacks