The Long Council
History's counsel on today's questions
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25 April 2026 · 5 members

How can Europe significantly reduce depency on the US?

Verdict

Europe can significantly reduce dependency on the US by systematically building autonomous capabilities in finance, technology, and energy while exploiting its position between competing superpowers. The path requires European integration at unprecedented scale — pooling sovereignty among Europeans to achieve the critical mass that no individual European state can reach alone.

Reasoning

Schmidt's energy crisis experience and Lee Kuan Yew's small-state strategy converge on making Europe indispensable to multiple powers while reducing critical vulnerabilities. Adenauer's integration method provides the institutional framework for building European financial infrastructure and technology platforms at competitive scale. Sun Tzu's strategic positioning suggests Europe should develop these capabilities quietly while maintaining public partnerships with both America and China.

The fundamental split concerns whether European autonomy can coexist with Atlantic alliance or requires accepting a break with American-led order — a judgment that depends on unknowable future intentions of competing superpowers.

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