The Long Council
Who was selected, and why
Should the EU subsidize manufacturing industries to regain independence of China?
The central tension
The core analytical conflict is between economic efficiency (comparative advantage suggests leveraging Chinese manufacturing capabilities) versus strategic autonomy (reducing dependency vulnerabilities in critical supply chains).
Selected members
Helmut Schmidt
Will argue: That strategic industrial capacity is a sovereignty imperative; subsidies are justified when they build exit options from dangerous dependencies.
Schmidt's framework on energy security as sovereignty and small/medium state strategy under great power competition directly applies to EU-China economic relations. · His energy diversification policies (1973 oil crisis), sovereign capability arguments, and documented position that "energy dependence is not an energy question. It is a question of sovereignty."
Lee Kuan Yew
Will argue: That interdependence managed skillfully is stronger than autarky; the EU should deepen engagement while diversifying rather than subsidizing inefficient domestic production.
LKY's industrial development strategy and small state survival framework through making oneself indispensable offers a counterpoint to dependency reduction. · His documented EDB strategy, pragmatic engagement with both US and China, and principle of making Singapore useful to multiple great powers simultaneously.
Friedrich Hayek
Will argue: That subsidies destroy the market's information function and produce inefficient allocation; security concerns don't justify abandoning comparative advantage.
Hayek's framework on market efficiency, spontaneous order, and the knowledge problem challenges industrial policy and subsidization directly. · His documented positions on government intervention distorting price signals, spontaneous order, and "The Use of Knowledge in Society."
Deng Xiaoping
Will argue: That strategic industrial development requires state direction and protection; the EU's current dependency resulted from failing to protect strategic industries.
Deng's state-directed industrialization model and strategic use of foreign investment provides the Chinese perspective on industrial development. · His documented SEZ strategy, state-led development, and "reform and opening up" policies that built Chinese manufacturing capability.
Raúl Prebisch
Will argue: That Europe faces "peripheralization" by Chinese manufacturing dominance; strategic subsidies are necessary to break out of commodity-exporter status in high-tech sectors.
Prebisch's framework on center-periphery relations and the case for industrial protection against established manufacturing powers directly addresses this dynamic. · His documented analysis of deteriorating terms of trade, import substitution industrialization arguments, and structural dependency theory.
Considered but not selected
Margaret Thatcher: Excluded because her anti-subsidy framework is covered more comprehensively by Hayek, and she lacks documented engagement with strategic industrial competition
John Maynard Keynes: Excluded because this is primarily about long-term industrial structure rather than cyclical economic management
Mahathir Mohamad: Excluded because while his industrial policy experience is relevant, LKY and Deng provide more directly applicable frameworks for EU-scale economies