The Long Council
Who was selected, and why
Who should pay for the added cost of sustainable kerosene in Europe?
The central tension
[The conflict between environmental mandates and economic distribution — whether climate policy costs should be absorbed by consumers, subsidized by governments, or borne by industry]
Selected members
Helmut Schmidt
Will argue: That Europe cannot allow climate policy to recreate the energy dependency that made it vulnerable in the 1970s, requiring structured cost distribution that maintains industrial competitiveness
European energy security architect who governed through oil shocks and understood sovereign dependency on external resources as governance failure · His 1973 oil embargo response, energy diversification strategy, and documented position that "energy dependence is not an energy question — it is a question of sovereignty"
Margaret Thatcher
Will argue: That market pricing should determine sustainable fuel adoption rates, and that subsidizing green technology through passenger surcharges is a market distortion
Architect of market-based environmental policy and opponent of regulatory approaches that distort market signals · Her documented positions on privatization, market mechanisms vs. state direction, and opposition to regulations that pick winners and losers
John Maynard Keynes
Will argue: That climate policy represents investment under genuine uncertainty where the insurance principle applies — paying costs now to avoid catastrophic future scenarios
Theorist of managing economic transitions under uncertainty, especially when costs and benefits are asymmetrically distributed across time · His uncertainty framework, insurance logic for policy under incomplete information, and documented positions on managing economic adjustments
Elinor Ostrom
Will argue: That sustainable aviation fuel represents a global commons problem requiring polycentric governance and graduated cost-sharing arrangements
Analyst of how collective action problems are resolved when costs and benefits are distributed asymmetrically across actors · Her common-pool resource governance framework, design principles for durable institutions, and documented analysis of cost-sharing mechanisms
Amartya Sen
Will argue: That the payment mechanism must consider differential impact on capabilities — airline surcharges are regressive, hitting lower-income travelers disproportionately
Theorist of capability and the distributional effects of policy costs — whose welfare is reduced and whose capabilities are enhanced by different payment mechanisms · His capability approach, documented positions on who bears adjustment costs in development policy, and analysis of regressive vs. progressive policy design
Considered but not selected
*Friedman** — Excluded because his framework would simply oppose the mandate entirely rather than addressing the cost distribution question given the mandate exists
*Roosevelt** — Excluded because sustainable aviation fuel is not a crisis requiring emergency intervention but a structured transition requiring institutional design
*Lee Kuan Yew** — Excluded because airline fuel policy is not a small state survival question and his framework lacks environmental policy depth